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Bloomberg viewed as having best chance to beat Trump in betting market analysis

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is viewed as the Democrat most likely to defeat President Trump if nominated, according to a newly released betting market analysis.

However, the analysis from researchers at Standard Chartered Bank, first reported by CNBC, also found that Bloomberg is viewed as having a 10 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

“Our interpretation of online market pricing is that Bloomberg is viewed as having the highest chance among Democrats of beating Trump if nominated. But his nomination probabilities are currently running just over 10 percent,” the study states.

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The research shows that among the top-polling candidates, Bloomberg and former Vice President Joe Biden are the two candidates viewed as having the highest chances of winning given perceptions about how friendly they would be for asset markets.

“Among investors, Bloomberg and Biden are probably viewed as the most asset-market friendly among the Democratic candidates, so their greater implied electability may be why US assets are not showing more stress,” the researchers wrote.

Bloomberg, who is self-funding his campaign, has not appeared in the Democratic debates since launching his campaign in late November, as he has failed to meet the donor threshold set by the Democratic National Committee. Still, he has polled near the middle of the primary field.

The former mayor has spent more than $200 million on his campaign so far and has said he may spend up to $1 billion to defeat Trump, even if he is not the nominee.

The researchers wrote that Sen. Bernie Sanders‘s (I-Vt.) chances of winning the general election are rising in online markets and are slightly behind Biden’s, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor, Pete Buttigeg (D) “look to have relatively low odds of beating Trump” if nominated.

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Trump, according to their findings, has a 55 to 60 percent chance of winning, a more significant shot than any Democrat. Incumbents typically have an electoral advantage as long as the economy is perceived as reliable, researchers noted.

Trump looks to be rising both in his conditional electability and in online markets’ assessment of his “absolute electoral odds,” wrote researchers, adding that investors appear to have rising confidence that federal policy will be U.S. market-friendly.

“It may be too early for asset markets to respond to the ups and downs of the nomination process. Moreover, even though candidates have stated positions, investors may be discounting the follow-through once elected,” the research noted.

“Elected officials often do not implement their positions, and with a split Congress (online markets give about a 70% chance that the House stays Democratic and the Senate Republican), the President may not be able to push through his/her agenda,” it added. 

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